Basic knowledge of behavioral economics
You can't keep your work deadline, waste, can't save, can't manage your health, loses the temptation of rule violations and misconduct.In both business and everyday life, we make mistakes in these various decision -making and judgment.Richard Saylor of the University of Chicago, USA, which won the Nobel Prize in 2018 in 2018, collectively calls them Misbehaving.The purpose of behavioral economics is to clarify the psychological mechanism that causes malfunctions, and then design and propose the countermeasures.In this series, we will introduce the basic knowledge of behavioral economics and consider how to use it.The first one is about the cognitive processing system at the root of judgment and decision -making.
Lottery
1st: Fast and slow thinking
1.2 -headed cognitive processing system
Human cognitive resources have great restrictions.The rationality of the action is limited.Herbert Alexander Simon in the United States (won the 1978 Nobel Prize in Economics) criticized conventional economics, which was called a limited rationality and assumed rationality.The problem of the cognitive processing system is an important issue related to the cause of this limited rationality and the starting point of behavioral economics.
Our cognitive system is not a machine that chooses the optimal solution like a computer, for better or worse, but is made up of two processing systems with completely different functions.One is a system that performs emotional intuitive processing (System 1).The other is a system (System 2) that carefully performs rational processing.
The two systems have a very contrasting personality (Table 1).System 1 processing is automatically performed unconsciously and is affected by the context and story at that time, while Systems 2 is aware of the careful processing based on the rules of logical operations.It is done.
表1：2つの認知処理システム（参考：キース・E・スタノヴィッチ、心は遺伝子の論理で決まるのか、みすず書房、2008、表2.1を参考に作成）| システム1 （速い思考システム） | システム2 （遅い思考システム） |
|---|---|
行動経済学の創始者の一人、ダニエル・カーネマン（2002年ノーベル経済学賞を受賞）は、その名著「ファスト&スロー」のタイトルにあるように、疲労なしに高速で行われるシステム1の処理を「速い思考」、消耗を伴いながらゆっくりとしか行えないシステム2の処理を「遅い思考」と呼んでいます。早合点や拙速がシステム1に任せた文字通り速い判断であるのに対して、ゆっくり考えるのはシステム2による遅い判断です。
System 1 makes various judgments lightly, leaving it to intuition.However, there is a bias (wrong decision).System 2 should think slowly and correct the judgment correctly, but ...
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2.Is it intuitive type or careful type?
Judgment and selection performance depends greatly on whether the system 2's careful processing can be monitored in the intuition process of System 1, or in other words, whether the person is a careful type or intuition type.By using a simple quiz, you can roughly look at which type you are.This is a cognitive Reflection Test designed by Yale Business School Shane Frederick.
Test to measure the degree of consideration -Cognitive -friendly test (CRT) is listed below, so please try it (see the last sentence for the correct answer).All are quizzes that elementary school students can understand.But it's not easy to answer correctly.In order to distinguish the intuitive type who is dusty and the intentional type of thinking carefully and the correct answer, the "hook" is designed.(Reference: Frederick, S.Cognitive Reflectionand decision Making, Journal of Economic Perspective 18 and 2005, created by modified for Japanese people)
2: It takes 5 minutes to make five parts, using 5 machines.So how many minutes would it take to use 100 machines to make 100 of the same parts?Answer ()
3: The weeds in a park doubled every day.Without care, the whole park will be covered with weeds in 48 days.So how many days will it take to be covered by weeds?Answer () day
For example, in Question 1, if the total price of the bat and the ball is 11,000 yen and the difference is 10,000 yen, people will immediately want to answer the ball 1,000 yen.The intuitive type is that it gets caught in this, and it is a careful type that can be considered without being caught.In this way, the more people who have the correct number of answers, the more they are carefully monitored, and the less they are, the more they are intuitive.
While this test has been held around the world ...
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3.Intuitive type worse choice
System 2 monitoring is sweet and intuitive type who is immediately refused in System 1 tends to be directly oriented and impulsive, and even if a high return is expected, it cannot take risks that match it.。System 2 is necessary to keep the urge in consideration of the future or estimate the risk calmly.Intuitive -type people cannot do it because the careful processing is troublesome.As a result, the quality of the selection and behavior as viewed from the rationality is low.
The same problem occurs when you estimate your skills, abilities, and the possibility of executing the plan at work.Intuition type people often believe in the sweet self -evaluation of Systems 1, so they often fall overly confident.Unfounded confidence will re -exacerbate the quality of behavior.
In fact, when examining the quality of the individual selections and behaviors, in many cases, intuition type (all questions in the CRT) are inferior to the careful type (all questions correct in CRT).。Figure 2 is an example.Men and women, regardless of the smoking rate (A1), the percentage of the appropriate weight (A2), the percentage of those who are neither low weight or obesity), the ratio of debt consolidation (B1), and the stock investment return (B2) in the past 5 yearsYou can see that the intuition type is inferior.These trends do not change, except for other factors such as age, income, and educational background.
図2：選択の質－直感タイプvs熟慮タイプ（参考：NTT人間情報データ2018より作成）However, this is ...
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4.To the book of behavioral economics
This time, we explained that the bias of our judgment and the rationality of the decision -making, that is, its limited rationality, is due to the duality of the cognitive processing system.People who rely on System 1, in other words, skipping System 2, lower the selection performance.Furthermore, even the same person has shown that the intuition of System 1 will be released depending on the situation of the option and the person's own condition.
The interests of behavioral economics are mainly the following three issues:
In the subsequent series, ...
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2nd: Hulistic Wana (Part 1)
Last time, we introduced the cognitive processing system. When we make a judgment, we do not consider all the materials in detail, but with a rough estimate. Rather than launching the careful system (System 2), the intuitive system (System 1) makes a rough decision. Herbert Alexander Simon (see the first one) named the rough judgment of this intuition. The judgment by the hulistic is out of the reasonable judgment by System 2. Even so, there is no problem if it is a random thing that will be zero if on average. But in many cases, it is a systematic error, that is, with bias, so we make our decisions and actions. This time and next time, I will take up three types of hulistic.
1.Deducted by "that kind ofness" -The representative Hulistic
In behavioral economics, the "trivialness" of things is called representative or representative.And it is called a representative hulistic to estimate the ease of things and probability of things due to the unwillingness.In short, it is a stereotype judgment.
The most easy to judge, is to be drawn by the uniqueness of things and determine the ease of occurrence and probability.
For example, let's imagine the person's personality in the rules that the rules are noisy and nervous, and then imagine that person's profession.Many people estimate the probability of being an accountant rather than being a sales clerk.I think that the nature of nerve nerve, noisy in the rules, is more like an accountant than a sales clerk (Figure 1).
図1：職業によるそれらしさ（イメージ）There is no problem if the sensory unpleasantness reflects the objective probability well.However, representative Hulistic has a bias (bias) that intensifies the probability of such events intensely and undermines the unusual events.
In the above example, the rule of nerve nerve is noisy in the rules ...
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2.Examples of judgment mistakes caused by representative Huristic
Here are three examples of judgment mistakes that occur from representative Huristic.
Case 1: The probability of A and B at the same time is greater than the probability that B occurs.
Here are some of the famous linda issues devised by two psychologists Aimos Tobelskyand daniel Carneman (see the first).It is a problem that Linda, who was a young socialist student, is likely to be lined up in the order of the current appearance of Linda.Please try it.(Reference: TVersky, a.and d.Kahneman, Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgmet, Created from PSYCHOLOCAL REVIEW 90, 1983)
The problem here is 6: Bank's window clerk and 8: Bank's window clerk.Many respondents say that there are 8 more than 6, but this is incorrect.This is because the probability of a single phenomenon, which is a window clerk, is not smaller than the probability of two phenomena, a window clerk or a feminist activist.
In this way, a mistake in determining the probability of the simultaneous event as higher than the probability of a single event is called a conversion false.The simultaneous occurrence of the simultaneous occurrence is to overlook the probability of 8 for former social students, because feminist activists are more likely than the window clerk.
This is a logical contradiction that you can notice if you think a little.However, behind the simultaneous decisions, there is a quick point by System 1.In fact, as shown in Fig. 2, it is known that the intuition type with a strong system 1 with a strong system 2 is more likely to make a simultaneous mistake in the linda problem.
図2：直感タイプの方が、同時決定の誤りに陥りやすい（参考：Oechssler, Roider, and Schmitz, Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 71, 2009より（N=1,250））Case 2: Costs are greatly estimated the probability of the positive PCR test.
A typical hulistic judgment error occurs in an easy -to -understand form in a serious case that requires more specific stochastic judgment.For example, look at the test results whether or not you are affected by infectious diseases ...
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3rd: Hulistic Wana (Part 2)
When we make various judgments in life and business situations, we may make mistakes to rely on intuition, that is, to make judgments.Last time, I explained the dangers of Hulistic, which is easily drawn by "Representative = that kindness".This time, I will continue to take up the Hulistic Wana.The keywords this time are noticeable and anchoring.
1.Deducated by "noticeable" -Hulistic of use possibilities
We tend to easily judge the ease of things, depending on the information that is easy to see.This is called a hulistic that can be used.
For example, in the IT bubble that occurred mainly in the United States in the late 1990s, the company name was dot com (.The stock price has risen just by attaching COM).It is probable that investors have invested in the name of the company that evokes the image of IT.Conversely, it is a new place to remember that the company where the word "Corona" was included in the company name in the Corona evil was exposed to great reputation.
If we make some judgment, we will remember the information stored in the memory (memory) and make it a judgment material.The "possibility of use" of the possibilities of the possibility represents the "reminiscence" at that time.
This is an image that has a warehouse called memory, and various information is stored as fragmentary luggage.Take out your luggage (information) from the warehouse (memory) and make it a judgment material.However, our intentional systems (System 2) are neither bean nor tough enough to take out all luggage and examine the content one by one.In many cases, the intuition system (System 1) will quickly take out the noticeable luggage, that is, highly possible information, quickly and judge it.That is the possibility of Hulistic.
In the previous example, it is considered that the company's performance and business content were judged, using only the information piled up in the warehouse, such as dot com and colona, as a material for judgment.
If information is transmitted by the media or SNS, it will be prominent, that is, the possibility of use will increase rapidly, which can give bias that is strong in people's judgment and behavior.For example, corporate activities are just featured in major newspapers such as the New York Times ...
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2.Directed by unrelated initial values -anchoring and incomplete adjustment
When we take a guide for some quantity and price, we tend to be affected by the unrelated numbers that we touched just before.This is called anchoring effect.Anchor is an anchor of a ship.The anchoring effect is that the previous figure becomes anchor and the judgment is dragged.For example, consider the following virtual following experiments.
Experiment 1:
Participants will fill out the paper of the lower four digits of their credit card number on paper.It is an experiment to bring one Belgian chocolate there and get the following two questions to the buy price.
At this time, how is the chocolate -answered chocolate price related to the buying price examined in (1), that is, the size of the four -digit number of the card number?Please try to imagine.
The virtual experiment above was based on a famous experiment conducted by psychologists Dan Arielies at the United States Duke University to examine the anchoring effect (in Arielies and others, not credit card numbers., Social security number is used).
In the Arierry Experiment, the higher the price of the price of buying or not buying in (1), the higher the price of (2).Needless to say, the price of (1) is a meaningless value for the respondents.This is an anchoring effect, where the unrelated initial value becomes an anchor and the purchase price is dragged.
Figure 2 shows some of the results of the Arieli experiment conducted in Sweden.Here, five products, including Belgian chocolate, are used.In the question of (1), the price is counted in the Sweden Crona (1klona = about 13 yen) with the lower two digits of the social security number.The point of asking the purchase price of each product in (2) is the same as the above experiment.As for each product, you can see how the value of the social security number is unrelated as a purchase price first, and you can see the purchase price.
図2：大きな番号を見た人ほど買値が高くなる（参考：Bergman,O. et al., Anchoring and Cognitive Ability,Economics Letters 107, 2010の結果から筆者作成）The anchoring effect is for actual transactions and negotiations ...
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4th: Self -destruction mechanism
Last time, I explained about Hulistic Wana.Our judgment and choice are distorted by intuitive cognitive processing.This time, as an application, we will take a self -anniversary action that gives priority to "now" (present) over "Sakai" (future).The keyword is currently bias and self -destruction.Currently, bias is a cognitive bias that always looks more important than "Sakai".
1."Immediately" dragged -Currently bias
Letting the job behind, wasteful and unable to save money, diet, alcohol, and smoke are planned, overeating.Why do you make such a disadvantageous self -anniversary choice?Behind the self -destruction, there is an anti -self -like self who tries to prioritize the profits of "saki" (future), and self -like conflicts that try to prioritize the profits of "now" (now).
Speaking of the two cognitive processing systems introduced in the first edition, the intuition processing system 1 (fast thinking) is a grasshopper -like self, and the system 2 of the careful processing (slow thinking) is an ant -like self.The duality of this ants and grasshoppers makes our choices inconsistent.
Regardless of economic selection, such as savings and debt, and health management issues such as dieting, self -anniversary actions are "small profits that can be obtained quickly" or "large profits that can only be delayed".It is a unique phenomenon in "choice on time axis" to select profits between points different.For example, if you are asked (a) 10,000 yen or (b) 15,000 yen, you will choose (b) with a large amount of money.But what about the following choices?
Q1: Which do you choose?(A) Today's 10,000 yen (small profit to get faster) (b) 15,50 yen one month later (great profit that can only be delayed)
Then, some people choose a small profit (A) (Fig. 1).Only after the timing of profits is different, a small profit (A) will be selected, which will lead to self -destruction for the reasons to be introduced.
図1：今日の1万円or1か月後の1万50円So why do some people do not choose (B) big profits (150 yen)? that is,……
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2.Self -destruction that "Ali" planned and "grasshopper" executed
Even if you carefully plan your work or control in consideration of the future, the time has passed over time, and the time discount will increase and the depressing will increase.As shown in Fig. 2, when considering the previous thing, the system 2 works well and planned like an ant.However, at the execution stage, System 1 is tempted by the profit at hand and runs like a grasshopper.As a result, a troublesome plan that considers long -term profits is postponed to the domino style, and the profits that are small even though they are small are given priority each time.
図2：アリが計画し、キリギリスが実行するFor example, even if you plan to end tomorrow, you will lose your job after the next day.These post -ends and postponement actions are typical self -destruction now brought by bias.
In general, ...
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3.Currently bias that brings self -destruction
In fact, those who currently indicate bias and those who do not show (or those who are weak) have different behaviors and selection quality.Here, we show evidence for three self -destruction choices: debt, lifestyle -related diseases, and addiction.The following four figures are based on the data of the national web survey (Human Information Database, NTT Data Management Research Institute, 2017, 16,703 samples).
Figure 3 is currently divided into two groups, depending on the presence or absence of bias, and compares debt tendency.Comparing the amount of debt excluding mortgages and the amount, you can see that the current biased group has a stronger debt tendency.
図3：負債の有無と額（参考：人間情報データベース、NTTデータ経営研究所、2017、サンプル数16,703より作成）The difference between the two groups is more clear in Figure 4, which compares over -debt trends.There, there are over 30%of household income, card cashing, credit card advantageous child liabilities, experience of using consumer finance, and overreab of debt consolidation and self -bankruptcy.We compare the ratio of the respondents for debt items.In each case, the ratio of the group with bias currently shows a higher ratio.The excess debt index values obtained from these data indicate that the group with biases is overwhelmingly higher.
図4：過剰負債者比率（参考：人間情報データベース、NTTデータ経営研究所、2017、サンプル数16,703より作成）Figure 5 is currently compared with the presence or absence of biases of lifestyle -related diseases.First of all, regarding the ratio of obese and type 2 diabetics ...
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5th: How to avoid self -destruction?
Last time, I explained the bias, now bias, as a cause of self -anniversary choices.Under the current bias, there is a contradiction between the an "self -like self who tries to prioritize the profits of" Sakai "(future), and the selfishness that tries to prioritize the interests of" now "(now)., That leads to self -destruction.So how do you overcome these contradictions and improve the quality of your choice?This time, we will explain how to deal with self -destruction after knowing the mechanism of bias and self -destruction now.
1.Be aware of the loose self in the future
If you are currently having a bias problem, first of all, you must first realize that you are a much loose human (= grasshopper) than you are thinking in the future.Someone who will finish the job today without losing the temptation to put a troublesome job behind is that I realize that tomorrow will be the same (I want to be postponed) again.。
In this way, a person who is currently aware of the pitfalls of the bias is called a "wise (sofistekeed)" person in the world of behavioral economics, and the person who is not aware of it is "simple (naive)".It is called a person.Simple and wise people have different selection performances.
Currently, under bias, I am planning to plan ahead, like ants.However, when it is executed over time, it transforms into a careless grain.A simple person is a person who overestimates the grasshopper in the future.From the overconfidence, simple people take an impulsive non -planned action.Whether you are a business or private use, you should be suspicious of a simple person if you do not keep your promises or keep the deadline.
On the other hand, wise people who are currently aware of the bias are different in two points.First of all, wise people who are aware of their looseness in the future make a plan at the stage of planning (Fig. 1).At first glance, you can remove the seemingly wonderful plans that you can't do, and make the best plan from the options that can be realized.As a result, wise people don't easily change the plan or make a promise.There is no blur.
図1：将来の緩い自分を自覚して自滅を避けるSecond, wise people are aware that both work or promises with friends will not end up in the future if they ahead and leave them to loose yourself in the future.increase.Therefore, wise people will do everything faster than simple people.If the adverse effects of biases, which are currently postponing work and control, are simple, they will take action in an easy -to -understand manner, whereas a wise person can be alleviated.
You can actually check that the adverse effects are greatly alleviated by being aware of bias.Figure 2 shows the results of the Internet survey on the time and risks we have previously implemented earlier.Like the last time (4th), ...
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2.Tie yourself earlier -Presecomit
There are some ways to efficiently ensure future profits, assuming that you are aware of your looseness.One of the methods is called a pre -comit (or commitment) that ties your loose hand in the future in advance (Fig. 3).If you can tie your selfish behavior, which will be an executive in the future, can be executed for a long -term action plan, even if you are in the stages of your future plan for the future.
図3：プレコミットメントFor example, as a pre -commitment to increase savings (a percentage of savings in income) to avoid excessive consumption outside the plan, a contract for reserved savings that will be highly canceled, and the assets are real estate.It is possible that assets that are costly to cash (assets with low liquidity), such as stocks, are considered.In fact, there is data that people who are aware of the self -control problem are joining the old -age pension.In a familiar example, it uses a pre -comit idea to collect detailed money and replace it with a 10,000 -yen bill.
Playcomitment means can only be used after being aware of the self -control problem.However, if that awareness is incomplete, ...
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3.Increase the reference point for self -control
If you try to control it with your own head and try to control it with a system 2 (slow thinking) of careful processing, it will be cognitive load and mental consumption (fatigue) will occur (see the first).。Therefore, there is a limit to self -control.However, even if you need a self -control in the same way, the degree of exhaustion depends on how natural it is woven as self -control.This natural self -control level is called the "reference point" of self -control.
It is considered that self -control is particularly aware of exhaustion, which exceeds the level of reference points in self -control.The second method of performing self -control is to increase the reference point for self -control.This allows for self -control without being worn (or without being conscious of consumption).
So how can the reference point for self -control be raised?Here are three important points.It is a habit, an internal motivation, and a social impact.
・習慣化
By routing and habitual work that needs self -control, you can achieve more self -control.This self -control habit has a self -reinforcement properties in which the more protected, the stronger you protect, but once you break it, it will lose its effect.Of course, you need to do your best while wearing it until you get a good habit.Once you succeed in your habit, it will be a strong commitment and you will be able to control yourself without exhausting.
・内発的な動機付け
Based on a strong inner motive, if you go to your future goals, it has the same effect of raising the reference point for self -control.The research group of Roy Bow Maister at Florida University has shown that by experimental financial incentives to increase the motivation of subjects, the sustainability of self -control is improved.In other words, motivation is a substitute for self -control.
However, even if it is just motivation ...
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4.Lighten the burden of self -control
Devising self -control is effective in avoiding great self -destruction.
・計画期間を細分化する
It is possible to shorten the planning period as a method of efficiently performing self -control under a limited will.If you can't control yourself like a grasshopper well, you will be able to save your self -control when you can afford it, waste resources, and take action that gradually become tailored.It is the same as a child uses pocket money quickly and puts up the spicy every day until the next pocket money comes.We have experience too.Although it is slow during the deadline, it is an action that rushes to the engine just before the deadline.
It is such inefficient to subdivide the period of action plan, such as making pocket money from once a month to once a week, or by dividing the progress of the work that can be done every month from the closing to the deadline. Effective to respond to action. One of the principles of economics is normal. The idea is that when you use a limited resource, you can use it little by little to make it efficient. Efficient self -control also requires this level. In other words, instead of working hard all night before the deadline, you need to do your best to do your best. Whether you're a child who runs out your pocket money right away, or a person who skips far away to the deadline, you can say that your self -control has failed. By subdividing the period of action, self -control is easier to level, and even if you are not able to completely level, the damage caused by it can be reduced.
These ideas are effective when designing any system.In the same way as an example of pocket money for children, pensioners once saw a phenomenon (pension -consumer cycle) in which they were in trouble on the pension date.However, it has been reported that this phenomenon has weakened since the pension benefit cycle was revised from three to two months in 1990 (it has not completely disappeared).
・セルフコントロールができる環境に身を置く
The urge to make a grassy choice is ...
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